The Hot & Cold Index (HCI) is a daily composite score that measures the overall strength of the Pokémon card market on a 0–100 scale. It combines five normalized signals across three concepts — index trend, broad market momentum, and premium card price breakout activity — into a single reading. Temperature labels from Ice Cold to Extremely Hot provide an intuitive at-a-glance interpretation of current conditions.

The HCI is a weighted composite of five normalized signals:

Eligible Universe: English ungraded Pokémon trading cards meeting minimum liquidity thresholds, price requirements, and price history requirements. Excludes sealed products, graded cards, and non-English releases.

Components:
• PV250 Index Trend : Measures how far the PokéViews Top 250 Index is trading above or below its 30-day moving average.
• Market Momentum — All Cards: Percentage of all eligible cards trading above their 30-day moving average.
• Market Momentum — $100+ Cards: Same metric applied to premium cards ($100+), which can be more signal-rich than the broad universe.
• New Highs — All Cards: Percentage of all eligible cards trading at a 30-day price high.
• New Highs — $50+ Cards: Same metric applied to higher-value cards ($50+).

The HCI methodology is reviewed periodically and may be subject to adjustments as market conditions evolve and additional data becomes available.

Calculation Frequency: Updated daily based on TCGplayer market price data.

The HCI provides a single daily number that summarizes the condition of the Pokémon card market across multiple dimensions. Unlike a price index alone, it incorporates how many cards are participating in a move and whether premium cards are leading or lagging. High readings suggest broad, well-supported market strength. Low readings may indicate widespread weakness or a cooling market. Historically notable extremes — both high and low — have aligned with meaningful turning points in the market over the last two years.

HCI readings are grouped into seven temperature tiers:

• Ice Cold (0–20): Rare, severe market weakness across nearly all signals
• Cold (20–35): Broad weakness, most cards declining or below trend
• Cool (35–45): Below-average conditions, market losing momentum
• Warm (45–55): Neutral to slightly positive, market near equilibrium
• Hot (55–70): Above-average strength, most signals trending positive
• Very Hot (70–82): Strong market conditions, premium cards participating
• Extremely Hot (82–100): Rare, historically elevated readings — market may be approaching short-term extremes

Temperature thresholds are calibrated to the historical distribution of HCI readings since May 2024 and may be subject to change as market conditions evolve or more data becomes available.